Additional U.S. Troops Headed to Afghanistan

Adding 30,000 additional U.S. troops to the war in Afghanistan is a mistake. First, it must be understood that the Taliban poses no threat to overtake the country once again.

The Taliban was able to capture 90% of the country at the beginning of the decade, before the American invasion. While they were able to enforce some outrageous laws in some high-profile places, they ruled most of the country in name only. The Taliban did not and will never truly rule over the majority of Afghanistan. They have some pull in the south of the country and the U.S. occupation has done nothing to diminish the Taliban's popularity in the Pashtun heartland. But most people in Herat and Kabul will always resent their presence. In Hazarajat and in the north, the Taliban will always be mortal enemies. The concern that the Taliban will sweep through the country if and when the U.S. leaves is unfounded.

The best case scenario for Afghanistan is for each distinct region to have its own system of government and to be loosely affiliated with one another. In this case, the best one can hope for, the Taliban would likely have some power in the south. Individual warlords would probably control the other regions of the country. Tax revenue would be collected and distributed locally. Individual regions would be allowed to determine how leaders are selected. The hope is that these warlords would be satisfied to hold onto power within their own areas and would refrain from engaging in violent forays into other regions in a bid to increase power. A central government may have some oversight powers, but, realistically, would likely end up being no more than the government of Kabul.

The U.S.'s intended goals however are to attempt to create a stable nation and turn over power to the Afghan government. This government, run by Hamid Karzai, is illegitimate on the heels of the stolen election held in August. Yet the U.S. plan is totally dependent on a government that has no credibility and has been widely regarded as ineffective and even corrupt. The U.S. has not only failed to learn the lessons of recent Afghan history, but those of ancient history as well. It continues to attempt to impose a strong central government on a society that has rejected its presence for thousands of years. The U.S. is pursuing a policy in Afghanistan that has no chance of success.

One concern is that if Afghanistan crumbles, Pakistan will follow. Unfortunately, Afghanistan crumbled thirty years ago, so that fear is outdated. In addition, Pakistani distrust of the U.S. pushes even moderate Pakistanis to the side of radical fundamentalists in opposition to the U.S. Should the U.S. military leave the region, it would likely increase the Pakistanis resolve to fight certain radical groups, because those groups would no longer serve their purpose as anti-U.S. forces. Pakistanis would perceive the fate of their nation to be at stake. So, in reality, the health of Pakistan might very well depend on a U.S. withdrawal.